NEW PROJECTIONS CONCLUDE ''HARD'' LOCKDOWNS COULD CUT DAILY COVID-19 CASES BELOW 1K

Dec 21, 2020

By Bob Komsic

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Saying Ontario’s ability to control the spread of COVID-19 is ”precarious,” provincial health advisors believe ”hard” lockdowns could help significantly.
New numbers show overall infection levels are twice the ”red” level, but that projections indicate lockdowns of four-to-six weeks could bring the cases to under 1,000-a-day.
Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the province’s science advisory table, says anything less than four-weeks will not work based on experiences elsewhere.
”Hard lockdown, a very stringent lockdown, with very strong communication, of four-to-six weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario,” said Dr. Brown.
”The duration of lockdown is very important.”
The data shows if the case rate keeps growing between 1 to 3%, the province will have 3,000 to 5,000 daily cases by the end of January.
If there’s ”substantial growth” of 7%, the province will have 30,000 daily cases.
The projections also show under all scenarios 300 intensive care unit beds will be filled within 10 days, double the 150-bed threshold where surgeries must be cancelled.
Under a worst case, ICU occupancy could reach 1,550 beds by mid-January.
The numbers also show deaths will continue to rise, especially in long-term care, where 633 residents have died since September 1, with 100 in the past week.
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