Apr 09, 2020

By Bob Komsic

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More COVID-19 projection models; this time best and worst case scenarios from the federal public health agency.
Like others before this one, and like others that are yet to come, Public Health Agency of Canada Chief Officer Dr. Theresa Tam and her colleagues warn what happens depends on how Canadians behave to keep the virus from spreading.
”It’s important to recognize that models are not a crystal ball and cannot predict what will happen,” stresses Dr. Tam.
”Models help us understand what could happen under various scenarios to allow us to prepare for the worst case and drive public health action to enable the best possible outcome.
Models are used in public health to support decision making on public health measures and to ready the healthcare system to plan for an expected number of COVID-19 patients.”
In the short term, they predict there could be as many as nearly 32,000 cases by April 16 with approximately 500 to 700 related deaths.
With strong control measures, the experts project 11,000 to 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.
With poor containment measures, they say the number could be much higher.
This first wave could end by the end of summer but only if measures are followed.

The prime minister says Canada’s at a crossroad and the outcome will depend on how we behave, given there could be ongoing smaller outbreaks for several months after that.
Justin Trudeau says this means physical distancing is and will be the new reality until there’s a vaccine.
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