NEW COVID-19 MODELLING PREDICT A BUMP IN HOSPITALIZATIONS

Mar 17, 2022

By Christine Ross

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All signs suggest COVID-19 transmission is starting to rebound in Ontario.

Ontario’s science advisers say hospitalizations and ICU admissions will likely rise as more public health measures are lifted, but nowhere near the levels seen at the peak of the Omicron wave.

New modelling suggests that if there is a moderate increase in transmission, hospitalizations will likely rise but not exceed 1-thousand.

Dr. Peter Juni says we need to keep transitioning into more freedoms over time, not immediately.

“Meaning we slowly increase the number of contacts, we slowly increase stop using masks, in various situations and to be honest, I think the best bet for all of us is if in doubt, still wear a mask and you will contribute to keeping things under control,” said Dr. Juni.

The science table also says booster doses has plateaued, but note that third doses helped cut hospitalizations and ICU by about 30 per cent at the peak of Omicron.

There are currently 644 people in hospital with COVID-19, and modelling suggests there could be fewer than 900 in hospital at a peak in early May – a far cry from the more than 4,000 people in hospital in January.

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