MODELLING: COVID CASES COULD HIT 15K DAILY BY MID-JAN, MORE IF OMICRON BECOMES DOMINANT
Dec 10, 2021
By Bob Komsic
New projections from the Public Health Agency suggest Canada could see between 2,900 and 15,000 cases of COVID-19 per day by mid-January, if Omicron does not overtake Delta as the most dominant strain, and depending on the effect of restrictions.
However, pointing to early findings from South Africa, where Omicron was first identified and cases have soared, federal health experts says cases in Canada could quadruple to 12,000 a-day in January if ”omicron successfully establishes” and current levels of transmission are maintained.
Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam says if it’s assumed Omicron is three times more transmissible than Delta and becomes dominant, then this country could see 26,600 daily cases by mid-January.
Modelling shows Canadians between 5 and 11 years of age are the most likely to catch COVID-19 given the low vaccine coverage in the age group.
They’re four times more likely to contract the virus than any other demographic.
Health experts say the best way to slow the spread is to step up immunization among young children and rollout third doses for others.
Dr. Tam and her colleagues urge a high degree of caution during the upcoming holidays.