Sep 28, 2021
By Christine Ross
The fourth wave of COVID-19 has flattened in Ontario due to the public health measures and an increase in vaccination rates.
New cases, hospitalizations and intensive care occupancy not not increasing.
But new modelling from Ontario’s Science Advisory Table suggests the province is still in a “fragile situation” with instability ahead saying future projections are wide-ranging.
Their predictions are uncertain because it’s too early to see the impact of in-person schooling and work resuming, and of people possibly spending more time indoors during cold weather.
The models show daily case counts could increase next month and into November, with more than 1,000 daily cases under best case scenario and up to 5,000 cases daily if transmission increases significantly.
But it notes that cases are on the rise among young children who aren’t currently eligible for vaccination.
The modelling also finds that about one-in-ten COVID infected people in Ontario will continue to have symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks, so called Long COVID.
To read the new modelling slides, visit the group’s website here.