NEW PROJECTIONS SHOW ONTARIANS NEED TO REDUCE CONTACT TO STOP SPREAD OF COVID-19
Jan 12, 2021
By Bob Komsic
Ontario will see more deaths from COVID-19 in the second wave unless there’s a ”significant reduction” in contacts.
That’s the bottom line of new provincial modelling.
The data shows ”mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions.”
Projections show troubling trends for hospitals and long-term care.
”We already have well over 1,000 deaths in this second wave, but we also have to acknowledge the anguish and the heartache of our most vulnerable senior citizens as they are cutoff from their loved ones as long-term care homes struggle to keep the virus out,” says Dr. Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, who points out 40% of nursing homes are in outbreak.
”As the virus spreads, so will the outbreaks and so will the deaths.”
There have been 198 long-term resident deaths and 2 staff dying of the virus since New Year’s Day.
Projections also show there will be about 500 intensive care patients by mid-January and potentially over 1,000 by next month in ”more severe, but realistic scenarios.”
Health experts also say the new variant virus from the U.K. poses serious concern for Ontario as it’s believed to be more transmissible and could see the doubling time for cases drop to as little as 10 days in March.
There are 8 more known cases of the variant in the province for a total of 14.