Saying Ontario’s ability to control the spread of COVID-19 is ”precarious,” provincial health advisors believe ”hard” lockdowns could help significantly.

New numbers show overall infection levels are twice the ”red” level, but that projections indicate lockdowns of four-to-six weeks could bring the cases to under 1,000-a-day.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the province’s science advisory table, says anything less than four-weeks will not work based on experiences elsewhere.

”Hard lockdown, a very stringent lockdown, with very strong communication, of four-to-six weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario,” said Dr. Brown.

”The duration of lockdown is very important.”

The data shows if the case rate keeps growing between 1 to 3%, the province will have 3,000 to 5,000 daily cases by the end of January.

If there’s ”substantial growth” of 7%, the province will have 30,000 daily cases.

The projections also show under all scenarios 300 intensive care unit beds will be filled within 10 days, double the 150-bed threshold where surgeries must be cancelled.

Under a worst case, ICU occupancy could reach 1,550 beds by mid-January.

The numbers also show deaths will continue to rise, especially in long-term care, where 633 residents have died since September 1, with 100 in the past week.